From the always smart and lucid http://larvatusprodeo.net/
This year’s AFL grand final sees the benchmark team of the past three seasons – the Geelong Cats – up against the long-time glamorous losers of the competition, the Saint Kilda Saints. Though it’s doubtful such things matter anymore. It seems that internal club culture is the creation of a fairly homogeneous bunch of coaching professionals who circulate around the clubs in a far more mercenary manner than the players do. With equal salary caps and AFL-allocted revenue, success in this competition seems to be on a bit of a draft-inspired merry-go-round. Be that as it may, tomorrow’s game should see what both the statistician in me (Robert Merkel, a guy who writes for Larvatus Prodeo), the home-and-away ladder, and the final series to date have shown to be the two best sides. This doesn’t necessarily guarantee a close match, but possibility of miserable weather in combination with two relatively evenly-matched teams just might.
Both teams seem to be heading into the match at nearly full strength, at least nominally. A number of Geelong players have just recently returned from injury, and their endurance will be tested. St. Kilda star Nick Riewoldt is nursing a dodgy knee.